Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 171.169267 207.973528 253.721175 315.861379 399.833663 5.120836e+02 6.784041e+02
2025-01-26 135.983899 181.349008 245.633955 347.550842 513.795473 7.925887e+02 1.344156e+03
2025-02-02 115.162640 163.839678 239.608903 374.786694 632.313051 1.162997e+03 2.581147e+03
2025-02-09 100.547192 150.219627 233.377651 396.717748 752.820449 1.645158e+03 4.958353e+03
2025-02-16 88.825533 137.864993 224.853641 409.872608 863.738204 2.233559e+03 9.561533e+03
2025-02-23 79.496827 127.317064 216.346920 419.199402 973.103677 2.980967e+03 1.947090e+04
2025-03-02 70.169747 114.920807 201.198982 408.085789 1021.853375 3.613390e+03 3.635740e+04
2025-03-09 62.691424 104.647949 188.007744 397.083813 1066.001774 4.342028e+03 7.345219e+04
2025-03-16 56.090509 95.035224 174.268884 380.303582 1082.037616 4.998043e+03 1.503487e+05
2025-03-23 54.549459 94.991072 180.978661 420.477686 1343.811432 8.180662e+03 1.847461e+06
2025-03-30 50.940915 90.239949 176.161518 426.389283 1475.807796 1.109990e+04 2.078612e+08
2025-04-06 48.388775 87.306402 174.999516 443.278448 1682.646304 1.661379e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 44.514633 81.282999 165.792090 432.997379 1753.089485 2.137052e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 43.748858 81.891125 173.275391 483.385367 2264.900624 4.827172e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 42.552503 81.361897 177.755606 526.205233 2837.506731 1.203122e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 41.079081 79.983431 179.669036 560.809943 3456.079067 3.527578e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 39.286120 77.612894 178.323166 581.678326 4031.352173 1.243781e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 37.485701 74.999646 175.777379 596.528909 4619.527441 7.737120e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 35.061822 70.597596 167.133122 578.845030 4755.787456 3.837621e+07 NaN
2025-06-01 32.881526 66.590211 159.097174 561.412897 4877.104101 8.926756e+08 NaN
2025-06-08 30.706734 62.399890 149.905225 534.970714 4809.392431 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 30.597813 63.394342 157.121330 598.568889 6632.707485 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 29.398802 61.465913 154.615191 608.010996 7510.485014 NaN NaN